Fort Knox, Fortunes, and a Global Gold Frenzy

Key Highlights:

• Audit Uproar: High-profile figures, including Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Senator Rand Paul, call for a physical audit of U.S. gold reserves.
• Record Highs and Pullbacks: Gold flirted with US$3,000 an ounce before a brief dip; analysts see profit-taking rather than a long-term trend shift.
• India in Focus: The world’s second-largest gold consumer hits all-time price highs while jewelry demand softens and investment demand surges.
• Trade Tensions: Tariff pressures remain a wildcard, adding fuel to gold’s safe-haven appeal.
• Conspiracy Theories: “Missing gold” at Fort Knox draws global attention, but the real story is the worldwide spotlight on bullion.

Gold has re-entered the global spotlight in a big way. Over the past 72 hours, key public figures—Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Senator Rand Paul—have publicly questioned whether the roughly 5,000 tonnes of gold reserves at Fort Knox are still there. At the same time, gold continues to test new price thresholds, briefly surpassing US$2,950 per ounce and edging closer to US$3,000 before a modest retreat. Across the Pacific, India sees its domestic gold prices hit record highs, partly driven by inflation concerns and cultural demand.

Why this sudden flurry of activity and attention? Beyond the headlines—ranging from “stolen gold” rumors to mainstream media coverage—there’s a broader narrative unfolding about gold’s strategic importance. From safe-haven appeal in times of trade wars to the possibility of central bank policy shifts, today’s gold environment is anything but boring.

We dive into the factors behind gold’s meteoric rise, the U.S. stance and controversies surrounding the Fort Knox vault, and the global demand picture, including India’s accelerating shift toward gold as a hedge. We’ll also illustrate the key data with charts and figures to give you a clear understanding of this precious metal’s trajectory in 2025—and possibly beyond.

The Fort Knox Controversy: Mainstreaming Gold

High-Profile Voices Call for Transparency

Fort Knox has long been synonymous with the U.S. gold reserve. However, recent tweets and statements from Elon Musk (~218M followers), Donald Trump (~101M followers), and Senator Rand Paul have effectively catapulted the “Fort Knox audit” topic into the global mainstream. The idea: verifying if the U.S. physical gold that is “supposedly” held at Fort Knox—about 5,000 tonnes (147.3 million ounces)—is actually there.

Trump’s video statements included remarks such as:

“We’re going to open up the doors… We want to find out if anybody stole the gold in Fort Knox.”

Elon Musk followed suit, using social media to question the veracity of the U.S. gold stash, prompting debate among his massive online following. While such claims are not new, the involvement of these influencers has significantly amplified the conversation.

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Why Now?

It’s anyone’s guess why these calls for an audit have surfaced so prominently. Some believe it could be a move to highlight the importance of physical gold reserves amid economic uncertainty. Others consider it an orchestrated push to pivot public attention towards gold’s role in global finance. Regardless of the motive, the net effect is a dramatic uptick in public awareness.

Key Insight:
The real story may not be whether any gold is missing, but rather why these high-profile individuals want the public to focus on the idea of U.S. gold reserves at this particular time.

The U.S. Stance on Gold: Trade Tensions and Monetary Policy

Trade Wars Heating Up

President Trump’s focus on tariffs—in particular on goods from Canada and Mexico—continues to stoke trade tensions. While these issues are seemingly unrelated to gold, the ripples they create in global markets often drive investors into safe-haven assets. Gold is typically a prime beneficiary when tariff threats or geopolitical uncertainties loom large.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Beyond trade policy, the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates plays a pivotal role in gold pricing. Non-yielding assets like gold often shine brighter when interest rates are stable or declining. Any hesitation by the Fed to lower rates, especially if inflation data runs hot, can dampen short-term gold momentum. However, ongoing concerns about inflation and the potential for an economic slowdown often keep gold in the spotlight as a hedge.

Gold’s Roller-Coaster Prices: Record Highs and Quick Pullbacks

Hitting New Highs

Spot gold briefly soared to an all-time high of US$2,956.15 per ounce earlier in the week. U.S. gold futures similarly advanced, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment. Analysts attribute these gains to a mix of factors: from persistent inflation worries and trade tensions to the global surge in demand for physical metal.

Temporary Dips = Profit-Taking

Gold later pulled back by about 0.6% to around US$2,934.99, with futures slipping 0.5%. Analysts like David Meger of High Ridge Futures see this as typical profit-taking rather than a shift in the overall bullish sentiment. Indeed, gold has set multiple all-time highs already in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that any short-term dips may simply offer buying opportunities for investors.

 Gold Price Trend: Six-Month Performance Chart

The India Factor: Second-Largest Consumer at a Tipping Point

Record Prices, Slower Jewelry Sales

India—one of the world’s largest gold consumers—finds itself grappling with record-high gold prices that have dampened jewelry demand but boosted interest in gold as an investment hedge.

Jewelry Demand Slumps

• High Prices & Liquidity Crunches: Retailers face tighter cash flow, some offering discounts or delaying restocking.
• Front-Loaded Purchases: Many consumers bought gold in November’s price dip, reducing current buying.
• Profit-Taking: With prices near all-time highs, some are selling existing jewelry to lock in gains.

Investment Demand Rises

• Gold Bars, Coins, and ETFs: In January, Indian gold-backed ETFs saw “unprecedented” inflows of $435 million—quadruple the usual monthly volume—reflecting gold’s role as inflation hedge and market risk diversifier.

Imports and Policy

• Imports Dip: January imports were at their lowest level since July (30–35 tonnes), yet still 40% higher than the previous year. Jewelers often resell stock instead of importing new supplies to manage costs.
• Budget Adjustments: The government maintained a 6% import duty on gold but reduced the customs tariff on jewelry from 25% to 20%—a modest benefit, given that jewelry imports remain niche.

Cultural and Economic Ties

• Deep-Rooted Tradition: Gold is integral to Indian weddings, religious rites, and rural savings, with households holding an estimated 25,000+ tonnes of the metal.
• Resilience vs. High Prices: Although cultural affinity provides a floor for demand, steep prices can temporarily curb new buying.

Overall, soaring prices have subdued India’s traditional gold jewelry market while spurring record investment flows, underscoring gold’s enduring appeal as both cultural cornerstone and economic safeguard.

ETF Inflows and Investment Surge

Despite weaker jewelry sales, investment in gold bars, coins, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains strong. According to the World Gold Council, Indian gold ETFs hit record inflows in January 2025, reflecting a strategy shift among investors seeking safe-haven assets in an environment of economic and policy uncertainty.

Import Dynamics

Gold imports in India have dipped from the peak volumes seen in August 2024 but remain above year-ago levels. Many jewelers face liquidity challenges amid high prices, often reselling inventory to lock in profits rather than replenishing stocks. While India’s gold import duty remains unchanged at 6%, the overall import climate is subdued by elevated price levels.

Conspiracy Theories and Media Buzz

“Missing Gold at Fort Knox”

From mainstream media outlets to social platforms, talk of potentially missing or “stolen” gold at Fort Knox has become near-ubiquitous. Elon Musk’s tweets and Donald Trump’s pointed remarks capture the imagination, fueling speculation. The real question remains: why are these figures drawing attention to U.S. gold reserves now?

Previous Incidents and Audits

Conspiracy theories surrounding central bank or government-held gold reserves are hardly new. Australia faced a similar scenario when a senator questioned whether the Bank of England might have melted down or lent out Australia’s gold reserves without explicit permission. While these stories often fade away, they can leave behind heightened public awareness and renewed calls for audits.

Key Takeaway:
Whether one believes the conspiracy angle or not, the net effect is that hundreds of millions of people—who rarely consider gold—are suddenly aware of its strategic importance.

Trade War Uncertainty and Market Sentiment

With President Trump reaffirming tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, the March 4 deadline for potential new levies looms. Markets remain uneasy, knowing that extended trade conflicts could amplify supply chain disruptions. Peter Grant, senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, notes, “Any dip in gold prices will likely be seen as a buying opportunity,” highlighting how global uncertainties tend to fortify gold’s allure.

Other Precious Metals Follow Suit

Gold’s close cousins—silver, platinum, and palladium—largely mirrored gold’s price movements:

• Silver: Fell by 1.2% to US$31.96 per ounce after a 12.6% rise earlier this year.
• Platinum: Slipped 0.8% to US$959.35 per ounce.
• Palladium: Dropped 0.8% to US$932.50 per ounce.

These dips reflect broader market profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift, as overall industrial demand and green technology trends remain supportive for precious metals.

The Road Ahead: Where Could Gold Go?

Predictions of US$5,000?

Analysts and market watchers have floated the possibility that gold could eventually reach US$5,000 an ounce. While this figure may seem high, the metal’s trajectory over the last 18 months—surging nearly 60%—lends some credibility to such forecasts.

• Bullish Drivers: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and sustained central bank interest in gold reserves.
• Bearish Risks: Accelerated interest rate hikes, sudden resolution to trade disputes, or a swift strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Gold has seized the spotlight this year, propelled by a confluence of events: calls for a Fort Knox audit from some of the world’s most influential figures, escalating trade tensions that support safe-haven inflows, and intensifying demand in critical markets like India. Prices breaking new records—combined with periodic pullbacks—illustrate how gold’s volatility can simultaneously entice and unsettle investors.

Yet, beyond the short-term price oscillations, there’s a deeper narrative: gold’s enduring role as a store of value in uncertain times. Whether you’re intrigued by the spectacle of “missing gold” conspiracy theories or guided by fundamental drivers like inflation and trade policies, one fact is evident: gold is front and center in global financial discourse.

As mainstream attention grows—fueled by social media commentary, renewed public interest, and coverage on mass-market platforms—investors should keep a close eye on potential policy shifts, Federal Reserve actions, and further gold-themed headlines. In this heightened environment, gold could either extend its winning streak or undergo volatility, but it’s unlikely to fade from the limelight anytime soon.