Surging Ahead: Australia’s Energy Sector and the Investment Path for 2025

Key Highlights:

• Looming gas shortages on Australia’s East Coast spark exploration in Beetaloo and Perth Basins.
• Uranium prices surge as nuclear power demand grows globally.
• Trump’s fossil fuel agenda reshapes energy markets, but renewables gain momentum.
• Green hydrogen, geothermal, and ammonia lead Australia’s renewable innovations.
• Strategic investment opportunities arise amid a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

The energy sector isn’t just going through a transition—it’s in the middle of a seismic shift. This isn’t just about swapping gas for solar or adding buzzwords like "renewable" and "green hydrogen" to boardroom presentations. It's about a landscape reshaping itself at the very foundations. From looming gas shortages on the East Coast to uranium's much-anticipated comeback and the unstoppable march of renewables, the Australian energy scene in 2025 feels like the mining boom’s next chapter—only greener, and with a few unexpected twists.

Here’s a closer look at how it’s all playing out—and where the smart money is headed.

Gas Crisis on the Horizon: From Export Titans to Potential Importers

Let’s start with what feels like an oxymoron. Australia, one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, is now seriously considering importing gas. Why? Decades-old Bass Strait fields are running dry, and while the big players scrambled to sell energy abroad, they seemingly forgot to keep the home fires burning. The result? A dire warning of domestic shortages by 2026.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. As with every great Australian problem, ingenuity is stepping in:

• Port Kembla Gas Terminal: This LNG import facility could turn the tables, bringing gas back home to meet rising demand. AIE's project isn’t just about plugging a gap—it’s about ensuring energy security for a nation that’s starting to feel the pinch.
• Beetaloo Basin’s Promise: Out in the Northern Territory, the Beetaloo Sub-Basin is being hailed as the new frontier. Companies like Empire Energy (ASX: EEG) are already gearing up to make sure East Coast grids don’t go dark.
• Perth Basin’s Easing Grip: Over in the west, loosened gas export restrictions have opened a potential lifeline. Companies like Strike Energy (ASX: STX) are positioning themselves as the heroes of the hour, ready to step up with much-needed supply.

For investors, this crisis presents more opportunity than chaos. The companies with their eyes on the Beetaloo and Perth Basins or those innovating LNG solutions are the ones to watch. Think of them as prospectors staking claims on a new kind of resource boom.

Uranium’s Comeback: From Taboo to Necessary

Once the pariah of the energy world, uranium is back—and it’s not quietly knocking. It’s pounding on the door. Why? Because the world’s thirst for low-carbon, reliable baseload power is more desperate than ever. And nuclear energy, long ignored in favor of trendy renewables, is finally being recognized as part of the solution.

Global Shifts Favor Uranium

• China Goes Big: With plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2035, China is becoming a uranium powerhouse. That kind of expansion doesn’t just create demand—it defines it.
• Europe Doubles Down: France, often a lone cheerleader for nuclear power, is being joined by other nations rethinking their energy strategies. Even Germany, the poster child for nuclear phaseouts, is reconsidering.
• North America Ramps Up: The U.S. is boosting domestic production to cut reliance on imports. Meanwhile, Canada—already a leader in uranium mining—is leaning into its position with full force.

Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World and China

Source: Worldnuclearreport.org 

Uranium’s Aussie Players

Names like Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) and GTI Energy (ASX: GTR) are emerging as big winners. Paladin’s projects in Namibia position it as a major supplier for global markets, while GTI’s focus on North America ties directly into rising local demand.

For investors, uranium isn’t just a short-term story—it’s a long game. As nuclear power becomes central to decarbonization goals, the demand for this once-controversial resource will only grow. Betting on uranium now feels a lot like investing in lithium before electric vehicles became cool.

Uranium 1 Year Trading Chart

Source: TradingView

Renewables Get Serious: The Rise of Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Geothermal

While gas and uranium grab headlines, renewables are quietly rewriting the energy playbook. And this isn’t the pie-in-the-sky rhetoric of yesteryear. These technologies are scaling—and fast.

Hydrogen Steps Into the Spotlight

Forget the "fuel of the future" tagline. Hydrogen is happening now. And Australia, with its abundant sunshine and wind power, is primed to lead.

• HyTerra (ASX: HYT) is pioneering natural hydrogen extraction, cutting down on the energy-intensive processes that have long been a barrier.
• Fortescue Future Industries continues to pour billions into making hydrogen a viable alternative for heavy industries.

Geothermal Energy Finally Gets Its Moment

Geothermal has always been the quiet achiever—reliable, scalable, and low-carbon. Companies like Earth’s Energy (ASX: EE1) are tapping into South Australia’s vast potential, promising baseload power without the emissions headache.

Ammonia Finds Its Niche

Who would’ve thought ammonia, long relegated to the agricultural sector, would emerge as a star? Pilot Energy (ASX: PGY) is transforming old oil assets into ammonia production hubs. This versatile carrier is set to play a big role in exporting clean energy to countries like Japan and South Korea.

For investors, the renewables sector offers a rich tapestry of opportunity. Much like gold rush days, the key is spotting the right claim—and the right players—to back.

Trump’s Energy Game: Fossil Fuels Back in Vogue

Across the Pacific, Donald Trump’s return to power is shaking up the global energy game. While Australia’s renewables push remains strong, Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance is creating ripples that can’t be ignored.

What to Expect

• More Drilling, Fewer Rules: Trump’s relaxed regulations are set to boost U.S. shale production, potentially driving down global prices.
• Tariffs on Renewables: By making imported green tech pricier, Trump is bolstering domestic fossil fuel producers at the expense of clean energy advocates.

The Balancing Act

For investors, this creates an interesting dilemma. Fossil fuels might offer quick returns under Trump’s policies, but renewables represent the future. Balancing these two narratives will be key to building a resilient portfolio.

2025: A Year of Risks and Rewards

The energy sector in 2025 is brimming with opportunities for transformative growth but is equally fraught with challenges that demand strategic navigation. As the global energy transition accelerates, understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and stakeholders.

Opportunities to Watch

Energy Storage: The Key to Renewable Reliability

Energy storage has emerged as the linchpin for solving one of renewable energy’s biggest challenges: intermittency. Solar and wind power, while abundant and clean, are inherently inconsistent, relying on environmental conditions that aren’t always predictable. Battery technologies are stepping into this gap, offering scalable solutions to store excess energy during peak generation periods and deploy it when demand surges.

Advancements in lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, and emerging alternatives like sodium-ion and flow batteries are transforming how energy is managed and utilized. Australian companies are at the forefront, with projects like the Victorian Big Battery demonstrating the nation’s commitment to renewable storage solutions. For investors, energy storage represents not just a supportive technology but a booming market segment with long-term potential to reshape energy distribution networks.

Cross-Border Energy Trade: A New Frontier

Projects like Sun Cable, which aims to export Australian solar energy to Southeast Asia, epitomize the promise of international collaboration in energy. Sun Cable’s ambitious plan to transmit solar power from the Northern Territory to Singapore via a 4,200 km subsea cable highlights Australia’s potential to become a renewable energy export powerhouse.

This project isn’t just a symbol of engineering excellence—it’s a bold business model that leverages Australia’s natural advantages, such as its vast solar resources, to meet the growing energy demands of its neighbors. Success here could set the stage for similar initiatives, making Australia a key player in global energy trade and positioning investors to benefit from this innovative export-driven approach.

Risks on the Horizon

Regulatory Whiplash: Navigating Uncertainty

Rapid and unpredictable shifts in government policies, particularly in major markets like the U.S., pose a significant risk. For example, a change in leadership or policy priorities could result in either a pullback or renewed emphasis on fossil fuels, potentially sidelining investments in renewables or creating market instability.

Closer to home, Australia’s own regulatory landscape is not immune to such turbulence. Policies surrounding gas export restrictions, subsidies for renewables, and infrastructure development can dramatically influence market conditions. Investors and energy companies must be agile, closely monitoring policy signals to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities as they arise.

Scaling Challenges: The Long Road to Innovation

While technologies like hydrogen and geothermal energy hold immense promise, their path to scalability is neither quick nor straightforward. Hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen produced using renewable energy, is touted as the fuel of the future. However, the infrastructure needed to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen at scale requires substantial investment, and questions remain about its economic viability in the near term.

Similarly, geothermal energy, while offering reliable baseload power, faces technical and geological challenges that limit its deployment. Exploration and drilling costs are high, and the industry must overcome public skepticism and environmental concerns to gain widespread acceptance.

Without sufficient capital, innovative breakthroughs, and policy support, these technologies risk being stuck in the "potential" phase for too long, delaying their contribution to the energy transition. Investors should weigh these hurdles against the long-term rewards, recognizing the importance of patient capital in this space.

Balancing the Risks and Rewards

For 2025, the energy landscape is a mix of tantalizing opportunities and formidable challenges. From cutting-edge battery storage solutions to ambitious cross-border trade initiatives, the potential for growth is vast. Yet, the sector is equally vulnerable to policy shocks and technological hurdles that require thoughtful navigation.

For stakeholders, the key lies in diversification—investing in a blend of established and emerging technologies, keeping a close eye on regulatory trends, and aligning portfolios with innovations that promise sustainable, long-term growth.

The New Energy Frontier

Australia’s energy story in 2025 feels eerily similar to its mining narrative—ripe with opportunity but fraught with complexity. Whether it’s gas, uranium, or renewables, the sector offers a bit of everything for the savvy investor. The challenge lies in picking the right horse in this high-stakes race.

For those willing to do the homework and take calculated risks, the rewards could be monumental. Because much like the miners of old, today’s energy pioneers aren’t just digging for resources—they’re shaping the future.