ASX Market Wrap: Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Collapse Keeps ASX Investors on Edge

Key Highlights

• ASX 200 recovers from early losses to trade marginally higher at 8,833.9 points

• US-Iran ceasefire talks break down as shipping disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz

• Gold firms above US$4,190/oz while iron ore slips below US$99/t

• WiseTech Global plunges more than 11% amid reports of an AFP investigation

• Investors brace for inflation and unemployment data later this week

The Australian share market clawed back early losses on Monday as investors weighed fresh geopolitical risks in the Middle East against a resilient domestic market backdrop.

The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.06% to 8,833.9 points by lunchtime after falling as much as 0.3% at the open. The broader All Ordinaries gained 0.04% to 9,051.2 points, while the Australian dollar hovered around 70.14 US cents.

The cautious mood followed reports that a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapsed over the weekend after planned peace talks in Switzerland ended without agreement.

Attention has again turned to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping corridors.

According to maritime intelligence firm Windward Maritime, shipping activity through the strait has effectively reverted to a “late-blockade baseline”, with only sanctioned or Iranian-linked vessels continuing to move through the region.

Oil prices initially surged before easing later in the session. Brent crude traded around US$79.46 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate sat near US$75.70.

Commodities Price Index | Source: MarketIndex 

While the market has welcomed periodic ceasefire headlines in recent weeks, analysts remain cautious about how durable any agreement may be.

RBC Capital Markets said the reopening of shipping routes could take considerably longer than markets expect.

“We concede that there will be a number of ships eager to leave the Gulf’s warm waters, and we think crude will struggle to find its footing amid a flurry of ‘open for business’ headlines, and yet we question the durability of the deal,” the firm said.

“In the event that the deal holds, the Hormuz reopening trajectory could resemble something similar to the Red Sea, where shipping traffic remains over 50% below pre-crisis levels.”

That uncertainty helped support traditional safe-haven assets. Gold climbed back to US$4,191.79 an ounce, while copper slipped to US$13,655 per tonne and iron ore weakened 0.4% to US$98.85 per tonne.

The decline in bulk commodities weighed on parts of the Australian resources sector, particularly lithium producers already battling weak battery metal prices.

Pilbara Minerals fell 4.34%, IGO dropped 4.65%, and Liontown Resources lost 3%.

Elsewhere, investors are preparing for a critical week of Australian economic data that could shape expectations for interest rates in the second half of the year.

Economists expect headline inflation to ease to around 4.1% for May, although underlying inflation is forecast to remain stubbornly elevated near 3.5%.

The Commonwealth Bank economics team said recent data suggests the inflation impact from Middle East tensions has been more moderate than initially feared.

“There continues to be a lot of uncertainty around the extent to which businesses pass higher costs on to consumers,” CBA economists said.

“While we expect some increase in pass-through during May, the available data suggest that the more severe inflation scenarios considered in the immediate aftermath of the Middle East conflict have so far not materialised.”

At the company level, the biggest talking point was logistics software giant WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC).

The stock plunged 11.36% to $32.69 after reports emerged that billionaire founder and executive chairman Richard White is being investigated by the Australian Federal Police over alleged exploitation-related matters.

The decline leaves WiseTech shares down approximately 75% from their 2024 highs above $130 per share, highlighting how quickly market sentiment can shift when governance concerns emerge.

ASX Sector Snapshot | Source: MarketIndex 

Not all technology names struggled.

Drone-focused companies continued to attract attention as geopolitical tensions reinforced the importance of defence technology.

DroneShield gained 3.6%, while Nanoveu’s technology subsidiary EMASS remained in focus following its recent drone efficiency breakthrough.

Commenting on the broader drone technology opportunity, EMASS director Dr Mohamed M. Sabry Aly recently said:

“Taking ECS-DoT from simulation into live flight and seeing the data hold up is a significant validation. What these results demonstrate is that meaningful endurance gains do not require hardware changes. They require better control.”

Among the session’s strongest performers, Seven Group Holdings rose 3.4% after unveiling a $500 million on-market share buyback, while gold miners benefited from stronger bullion prices. Ora Banda Mining climbed 5.76% and Kingsgate Consolidated gained 4.82%.

On the downside, Humm Group slumped 17.95% after acquisition discussions with Credit Corp formally ended, while Metcash fell following a decline in annual profit despite stable revenue.

Investors also navigated the latest quarterly ASX index rebalance, with ALS replacing Pro Medicus in the ASX 50 and Paladin Energy entering the ASX 100.

Despite the geopolitical headlines, one measure suggests investors remain relatively calm.

The S&P/ASX 200 VIX index sits at just 12.5, a level historically associated with low expected volatility.

For now, markets appear caught between two competing narratives. One is a global economy still supported by resilient corporate earnings and ongoing AI investment. The other is a world where geopolitical risks can quickly re-emerge and disrupt commodity markets, trade routes and investor confidence.

This week’s inflation and employment figures may determine which narrative gains the upper hand.

Source: ASX market data, Windward Maritime, RBC Capital Markets, Commonwealth Bank Economics, company announcements and market reports dated 22 June 2026.